Can Dems Hold Impeahment Until They Win Both Houses?

POLITICO Playbook: Tin Dems defy history?

SCOOP — Alex Thompson has a must-read piece uncovering an internal White House investigation documenting a toxic work environment described past 14 current and old staffers who worked under ERIC LANDER, President JOE BIDEN's top scientific discipline adviser, who they say bullied and demeaned subordinates. "The behavior," Thompson writes, "is at odds with Biden'southward 24-hour interval-i alert to his political appointees that anyone who disrespected their colleagues would be fired 'On the spot. No ifs, ands or buts.'"

DEMS RETHINK 2022 — The most likely Nov election scenario is that Republicans win the House and Senate. On average since World State of war Ii, the president's party loses 26 House seats and 4 Senate seats in a midterm election.

The traditional indicators still point toward a typical midterm for Biden: low presidential approval rating (42%), a Republican advantage over Democrats on the generic election (44%-42%), and more than than twice equally many Democrats retiring from the House every bit Republicans (29-xiii).

But Democrats are start to whisper about something that sounds laughable to many observers: Perchance they tin can win the midterms.

Some contempo developments have started to pierce the conventional wisdom about a GOP wave:

— Redistricting: Catastrophic losses from partisan gerrymandering that many Democrats feared take non materialized. Despite decrying the process and pushing reform in Congress, Democrats did not unilaterally disarm. The hyper-ambitious map recently released by New York Democrats fabricated it clear that the political party may come out ahead in the process nationally. "At that place aren't many breaks Dems *haven't* caught in redistricting then far," Dave Wasserman recently noted.

— The economy: Inflation is all the same a meridian priority for voters and the primary obstacle to Biden receiving college marks on his handling of the economy. Only unemployment is very low, growth is strong, and the latest jobs report was phenomenal. If inflation data released this Th shows a dip, Biden might be able to fence that the peak has been reached and the pass up many economists predict this year is starting time.

— The pandemic: The Omicron moving ridge has crested and a render to relative normalcy could exist in sight.

— The GOP: As nosotros outlined in particular Saturday, the Republican Party'south focus on 2020, Jan. half dozen and DONALD TRUMP is creating major headwinds.

DOUG SOSNIK of Brunswick Grouping argues that "in that location would demand to be a series of developments in lodge for the Democrats to defy history":

1. The virus needs to exist contained with the land returning to a new normal.
2. Inflation needs to start going down by summertime.
3. The economy and the stock market need to maintain steady growth, specially as interest rates begin to ascension.
4. The supply chain needs to return to normal.
5. There is not a global crisis.
6. Biden's job approval rating needs to be in the high 40s by summer.
7. Republicans need to nominate unelectable general-election candidates and run lousy campaigns. They are capable of this and have done this in recent by cycles, choosing far-right candidates such as TODD Alike or CHRISTINE O'DONNELL who ended upwardly losing in the full general ballot.
8. Trump and Republicans need to go along talking most the 2022 election.

KRISTIAN RAMOS of Autonomy Strategies said he's "more than optimistic than others." He said the "economy is incredible" and Democrats will have a better story to tell about the Biden tape this twelvemonth if they pass some version of Build Back Amend, get children under five vaccinated, confirm the first Blackness woman to the Supreme Court and highlight the implementation of the infrastructure law.

But he's bewildered by what he sees every bit his party's restraint when it comes to attacking the GOP. "When are we going to offset hitting Republicans?" he asked. "When are nosotros going to start pointing out these people are fascist calorie-free and don't believe in democracy?"

CHUCK ROCHA, the president of Solidarity Strategies who is working on several House races, pointed to ii key dynamics. "If you combine redistricting and [Republicans] nominating crazy people, that's how we might win," he said. "Though I wouldn't desire these odds at a poker table."

The most meaning argument among the Democrats we surveyed was over how to handle Trump.

There have simply been two midterm elections since World War 2 when the president's party gained House seats: in 1998, every bit Republicans pursued an unpopular impeachment against and then-President Beak CLINTON, and in 2002, when the country rallied around GEORGE Westward. BUSH'southward post-9/eleven leadership.

In both cases, unusual nationalized elections around a unmarried ascendant issue helped a president overcome the typical midterm backlash. The big unsettled strategic contend for Democrats is whether Trump/MAGA should go that effect in 2022.

Some prominent strategists argue that the 2022 and 2022 elections, with Trump at the center, saw massive turnout increases for both parties but that favored Democrats overall. Nether this theory, the simply hope for Democrats is to reassemble the 2022 and 2022 anti-Trump majority, and that ways turning the election into a referendum on Trump, or at to the lowest degree Trumpism. These strategists want to highlight the work of the Jan. six commission and the piece of work of prosecutors investigating the former president, focus attention on Republican primary debates where candidates outbid each other in their fidelity to Trump positions that are unpopular in a full general ballot, nationalize Trump's campaign-trail outrages, and spend heavily to brand MAGA candidates who endorse the "Big Prevarication" the confront of the GOP.

Other Democrats are wary. "I'thou not sure the testify to date suggests elections effectually Trump practise it for us," said a prominent Democratic strategist, "but that could change as the GOP legitimizes January. 6." Vulnerable House Democrats on the frontline have too repeatedly pushed back on such a strategy, arguing that in 2022 they flipped more than forty House seats because they talked about bug, non Trump. Indeed, many of them cramp at using this playbook, as we reported a while back.

Ramos offered a subtle distinction. "Forget near Trump. He's non on the ballot," he said. "Trump is already in there in voters' heads. He plays such an outsized function in social club. He'south at that place. Why am I going to focus on someone who is already a bogeyman? Run confronting [GREG] ABBOTT. Run against [MARCO] RUBIO. Run against [RON] DESANTIS. Run against MAGA, not against Trump."

Good Mon morning. Thank you for reading Playbook. Drib us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

Bring together US — White Business firm climate adviser GINA MCCARTHY will join POLITICO Live at ane:30 p.m. Th for a virtual interview with White Firm correspondent Laura Barrón-López to discuss Biden's challenging path ahead to fulfill his aggressive climate agenda. The interview is part of "The Long Game: Who Will Solve the Climate Crisis?" consequence, which volition kick off at 12:45 p.m. with a panel moderated by Global Insider author Ryan Heath discussing fresh data and insights from the POLITICO/Morning Consult Global Sustainability Poll on what citizens really call up almost how governments and businesses are dealing with climate and sustainability. RSVP here to watch

BIDEN'S Monday:

— 10:15 a.m.: The president and VP KAMALA HARRIS volition receive the President's Daily Brief.

— one:thirty p.grand.: Biden will participate in a bilateral meeting with German Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ.

— iii:xv p.grand.: Biden and Scholz will concord a joint printing conference.

Press secretary JEN PSAKI will brief at one:45 p.m.

THE SENATE volition meet at 3 p.m., with votes on a couple of judicial nominations at 5:xxx p.yard.

THE House will run into at noon, with votes postponed until six:xxx p.thou.

BIDEN'South WEEK Alee:

— Wednesday: The president will participate in a roundtable with utilities CEOs to discuss his agenda.

— Thursday: Biden will travel to promote his agenda.

— Friday: Biden will travel to Military camp David, where he will stay over the weekend.

Photo OF THE DAY

CONGRESS

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Keep Land Commencement Policy Action, an outside group founded by allies of Rep. ADAM KINZINGER (R-Ill.), is launching an ad campaign bankroll the bipartisan Senate group'southward piece of work on Electoral Count Human action reform. The six-figure ads go live today and will target lawmakers on Capitol Loma, urging them on in their piece of work. "We all saw how bad actors used misinformation about the Electoral Count Act to inspire the assail on the Capitol on January 6th," group board member and former Rep. BARBARA COMSTOCK (R-Va.) volition say in a release that goes out today. "Congress must act to reform the 135 year former law to remove whatever supposed ambivalence that could exist exploited in future elections." Sentry 1 of the ads here

ALL POLITICS

Political party ALLEGIANCE — Our colleague Sabrina Rodríguez has an important story this morning on a topic that doesn't get enough attention: Trump and the GOP's surprisingly strong performance among Latino voters in the 2022 election, and the question of whether the Democratic Party's hold on that demographic is slipping. Sabrina zeroes in on a slate of Republican women running for Congress in districts along Texas' southern border and writes that it's "some of the clearest evidence that Trump'due south 2022 performance at that place may not take been an anomaly, simply rather a sign of significant Republican inroads amid Texas Hispanics — maybe not plenty to threaten the Democratic advantage amid those voters, but enough to send ripples of fear through a party that is experiencing erosion amid Hispanics across the state."

CUOMO PLOTS COMEBACK — Sources tell WSJ's Jimmy Vielkind that onetime New York Gov. ANDREW CUOMO and his team "are intensifying an endeavour to revive his public standing, including discussing how to make his showtime public advent since resigning in August … Mr. Cuomo and his remaining aides have been calling former allies and political operatives to complain about New York Attorney General LETITIA JAMES, who oversaw an investigation that concluded Mr. Cuomo sexually harassed 11 women. Mr. Cuomo has been attempting to determine the right forum for a spoken communication or appearance that would marking his render to public life."

ABRAMS MASK FIRESTORM — Perhaps it seemed innocuous plenty: Over the weekend Georgia gubernatorial candidate STACEY ABRAMS posted a pic on Twitter of her sitting in front of a group of unproblematic school students to mark Black History Month. The trouble: Abrams was not wearing a mask, and the students were. The since-deleted picture show triggered a fierce backlash and charges of hypocrisy confronting Abrams, who's long implored Georgians to mask up.

Abrams' "campaign said she wore a mask to the event and only removed it so she could exist heard past students watching remotely and for a scattering of photos on the condition that everyone around her was wearing face-coverings," Atlanta Periodical-Constitution's Greg Bluestein writes.

"At the heart of the dorsum-and-forth is a broader debate over coronavirus policies during the 2022 midterms. [Gov. BRIAN] KEMP and young man Republicans fence aggressive efforts to roll back economic restrictions and push button schools to reopen helped Georgia's economy quickly rebound. Abrams and Democrats accept blamed the rapid spread of the virus on Kemp's 'inaction' and refusal to have more steps to curb the virus."

THE WHITE HOUSE

Israel TRIP IN THE WORKS — The president will visit Israel "'later this year' after Israeli Prime Minister NAFTALI BENNETT invited him to the state," during a phone conversation between the 2 leaders Sunday. The White House added that the ii too "discussed the shared security and other challenges in the Middle Due east region, including the threat posed by Islamic republic of iran and its proxies." More from CNN's Donald Judd

STATE OF THE UNIONS — This morning, the White House Task Force on Worker Organizing and Empowerment is releasing its first report of recommendations to "promote worker organizing and collective bargaining for federal employees, and for workers employed by public and private-sector employers." The task force led by Harris and Labor Secretary MARTY WALSH was created by Biden terminal Apr to find ways the assistants could strengthen the ability of unions.

Senior officials take told Playbook the assistants sees the growth of union interest around the country equally part of a revitalization in an area that has seen failing membership and attention. Politically, it'south also a chance for Democrats to work to preserve a constituency that's been historically friendly to the party.

The report includes but nether seventy recommendations, including ensuring federal contract dollars aren't spent on anti-union campaigns for the Labor Department, OMB, Defense and HHS. The White Business firm says Biden has already accepted the recommendations and that in six months the group is expected to send another report to the Oval Office on how activeness items are being implemented.

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

EYES ON EMMANUEL — "The standoff with Russian federation over Ukraine enters a critical stage this week," NYT's Roger Cohen and Andrew Kramer notation. "Diplomatic avenues are being feverishly explored and the outlines of potential solutions, still baggy, may be taking form. Biden meets Monday with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and President EMMANUEL MACRON of France, at the same time, will visit his Russian analogue, VLADIMIR PUTIN, in Moscow before traveling to Kyiv.

"With the Biden administration staking out a hard line, Germany lying low and Mr. Putin seemingly determined to strength a solution to Russia's security grievances, it is Mr. Macron who has positioned himself at the middle of the diplomacy in Europe. To Moscow, he is a 'quality interlocutor,' as Mr. Putin called Mr. Macron. … For Mr. Macron the risk to pb the endeavor to create a new European security architecture has placed him front and center on perhaps the biggest stage of his presidency, just two months before elections."

JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

DREAMING OF 2023 — Our Olivia Beavers and Kyle Cheney write that House Republicans are grappling with what to do with the Jan. half-dozen committee if they retake the chamber this fall. Many merely want to let it die, but some prominent conservatives like Reps. MADISON CAWTHORN (N.C.) and MATT GAETZ (Fla.) want to reorient the panel toward their own ends. "Reshaping it into a political cudgel against Democrats, as compelling as it might audio to some conservatives, will take time and focus from a party that wants to pursue its ain policy agenda should it vault dorsum to power as expected."

Barack Obama did non announced to exist in "embankment mode" when it comes to the construction of his Hawaii beachside mansion.

Glenn Youngkin's campaign account lashed out at a teenager on Twitter — and Ralph Northam — in an online spat Sabbatum.

Brian Stelter appeared to get emotional as he spoke hopefully about the future of CNN.

Antony Blinken's first year in the job got the NYT treatment.

TRUMP Aide MOVE — Susie Wiles is now co-chair of Mercury Public Affairs. She is chair of the Save America PAC and is a Trump campaign, Ron DeSantis and Rick Scott alum. She'll continue to head Trump's Save America PAC. More from Florida Politics … Her email announcement, via Alex Isenstadt

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The Democratic Attorneys Full general Clan has restructured its leadership squad to a presidential model, elevating Sean Rankin to the role of president and Michelle Ortiz to executive director. In add-on, DAGA is bringing on a slate of new hires: Jonathan Sclarsic volition be COO and general counsel, Britteny Jenkins will be policy managing director, and JP Boyle will exist development director.

TRANSITIONS — Jessica Rihani is joining Mindset as COO. She previously was COO of Signal Grouping. … Kivvit is adding Jalisa Washington-Cost and Arielle Goren as managing directors. Washington-Price previously was VP of political and advocacy at iHeartMedia, and is a Biden-Harris alum. Goren previously founded Juno Strategies and worked for Uber policy and comms. They're also calculation Christine Lee as a senior associate and Mashal Hashem as an associate. …

… Stasha Rhodes is joining Keefe Singiser Partners as a partner. She previously was director of democracy campaigns at the Hub Projection. … Drew Preston and Taylor Meredith are joining Duke Energy. Preston will be manager of federal government affairs and is a Associated Industries of Florida, Florida Chamber of Commerce and U.S. Chamber of Commerce alum. Meredith volition be senior manager of federal government diplomacy and is a Senate EPW Commission and EPA alum. … Emily Teitelbaum is joining the Libra Group as chief comms officer. She previously was VP for public diplomacy comms at Wells Fargo, and is an Edelman and Jim Webb alum.

HAPPY Altogether: Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.) … Monica Medina … Gay Talese (9-0) … Dave Levinthal … erstwhile Sen. Herb Kohl (D-Wis.) … POLITICO'southward Laura Barrón-López and Patricia Iscaro … Beth Frerking … Bloomberg'southward Jeff Kearns and Colleen Murphy … erstwhile Reps. Allen West (R-Fla.), Stephen Fincher (R-Tenn.), Doc Hastings (R-Wash.) and Michael Grimm (R-N.Y.) … John Criscuolo of Squire Patton Boggs … Emily Hampsten … Patrick Ferrise … Estimate James Gilbert of the U.South. Mail (61) … Carleton Bryant … Community Change'south Jasmine Nazarett … Jessica Kershaw … Miguel Fifty'Heureux … Jeanne McCann … Tiffany Win … Christine Grimaldi … Jeff Marschner … Invariant'due south Mary Beth Stanton

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Source: https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2022/02/07/can-dems-defy-history-00006116

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